So only two finals to go now. Problem is, they’re the hard ones. I’m looking at my metrics midterm right now, and I still don’t know what to do when they spit things like:

2. (b) Let x be multivariate normal, mean zero, sigma = I. Suppose A is a matrix of rank r. If A is idempotent, show that x’Ax ~ chi-square with r degrees of freedom.

Or:

3. (a) Show that the true variance of the forecast error in an OLS regression is given by sigma^2(x(n+1))’(X’X)^(-1)(x(n+1) + sigma^2.

Yeah, tough week coming up.

Two buds and I just finished up our final M.A. paper, though. We somehow managed to make it so that watching March Madness was part of our preparation. Good plan, huh? You can peep the paper here. It’s called “Upset Special: Are March Madness Upsets Predictable?”  Using a ridiculous large database (essentially, every first round March Madness game since 1985) that we compiled, we show that you can consistently predict first round upsets, and thus that the seeding in the NCAA shows consistent bias.  Crazy, huh?  The statistics aren’t that complicated in the paper, so you should be able to understand it with just a basic statistics background.  I’ve also included the STATA code if you want to replicate the results - just email me for the database.

I sent word of the paper to a few of the basketball stats guys.  Amazingly enough, Mark Cuban, the billionaire owner of the Cavs, actually threw an email back.  It was just something like “Cool, I’ll check it out.  M.”  But still.  A billionaire in the email box.  Not bad.

It looks I’m gonna have a year off next year before grad school, as I didn’t sneak off any of the waiting lists.  I’ve got a professor here who might make some calls and see if they can sneak me in somewhere.  I didn’t know that actually works, but she thinks it’s possible.  Barring a miracle, though, it looks like DC until the end of August, and then taking a loan and traveling until next summer.  Good plan, right?

It’s actually way cheaper to travel than you would think.  I’m planning to buy the following plane ticket for about $4000+tax.  Really, the round-the-world ticket fares are amazingly inexpensive. PDX-SFO-SYD-AYQ-PER-NRT-HKG-URC, HKG-DEL, BOM-BKK-RGN-BKK, SIN-HKG-JNB-MRU-JNB-VFA, DAR-LHR-THR, DXB-CAI-BCN-IST, MAD-CCS, EZE-SCL-IPC-SCL-SYD-SFO-PDX.  That’s Portland to San Fran to Sydney to Ayers Rock to Perth to Tokyo to Hong Kong to Urumqi, overland through China to Hong Kong.  From HK, fly to Delhi, overland to Mumbai, fly to Bangkok to Rangoon to Bangkok, overland through Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia to Singapore, from Singapore to Johannesburg via Hong Kong, Johannesburg to Mauritius and around the Indian Ocean island (Rodrigues, Seychelles, Reunion) and back to Johannesburg.  Fly from Johannesburg up to Victoria Falls, then overland to Dar es Salaam.  Fly from Dar to Tehran via London, travel south to Iran to Dubai, fly Dubai to Cairo, and then Cairo to Istanbul.  Meander overland from Istanbul across Europe to Morocco, and then back up to Madrid to catch a flight to Caracas in late April or so.  Go across the mesas to the Amazon, then through Brazil down to Buenos Aires.  From Buenos Aires, fly to Easter Island via Santiago, then return to Sydney, and finally back home.  How’s that for a route?  So if I end up buying the ticket, you guys are gonna have to meet me somewhere right?  Let’s say September in Australia, October in China, November to January in SE Asia, February and early March in the Indian Ocean, Africa and the Middle East, mid-March to early May in Europe, and late May to the end of June in South America.

I take it I’ll see you then.

OK, it’s back to studying for ‘metrics.  Peace.